2023年业绩同比预计大增，关注储能及新建煤矿，维持“增持”评级

大(da)新公司(si)发布的(de)2024年(nian)报抢先，2024年(nian)达(da)到(dao)(dao)归母(mu)纯(chun)纯(chun)收(shou)益率(lv)(lv)22.3-23.5000万元(yuan)，去(qu)年(nian)同期(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)率(lv)(lv)+16.8%-22.0%；达(da)到(dao)(dao)扣非(fei)(fei)归母(mu)纯(chun)纯(chun)收(shou)益率(lv)(lv)22.8-23.8亿港(gang)(gang)元(yuan)，去(qu)年(nian)同期(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)率(lv)(lv)+37.0%-43.0%。单Q4分析，2023Q4达(da)到(dao)(dao)归母(mu)纯(chun)纯(chun)收(shou)益率(lv)(lv)6.1-7.3亿港(gang)(gang)元(yuan)，去(qu)年(nian)同期(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)-0.8%-+15.5%，达(da)到(dao)(dao)扣非(fei)(fei)后归母(mu)纯(chun)纯(chun)收(shou)益率(lv)(lv)6.6-7.1亿港(gang)(gang)元(yuan)，去(qu)年(nian)同期(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)+8.1%-24.4%。大(da)新销售业绩(ji)考核(he)预增(zeng)(zeng)主因煤碳(tan)能(neng)源的(de)业务(wu)部(bu)门产量量去(qu)年(nian)同期(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)率(lv)(lv)新增(zeng)(zeng)，供(gong)电的(de)业务(wu)部(bu)门和动力(li)煤选购代(dai)价去(qu)年(nian)同期(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)率(lv)(lv)急剧下(xia)(xia)降，当下(xia)(xia)煤碳(tan)能(neng)源市(shi)(shi)场(chang)价格正处在相低位且振动幅度(du)缩窄。让我们达(da)到(dao)(dao)2023-2025年(nian)营(ying)利分折，开展2023-2025年(nian)达(da)到(dao)(dao)归母(mu)纯(chun)纯(chun)收(shou)益率(lv)(lv)23.0/25.1/26.1亿港(gang)(gang)元(yuan)，去(qu)年(nian)同期(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)率(lv)(lv)+20.4%/+9.3%/+5.8%；EPS为0.10/0.11/0.1两元(yuan)，对(dui)应着当下(xia)(xia)股(gu)票市(shi)(shi)值PE为13.3/12.2/11.5倍，达(da)到(dao)(dao)“加持(chi)”评估。

煤炭产销增长叠加电力成本降低，业绩改善显著

媒碳(tan)销(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)：子(zi)(zi)(zi)工(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)202两(liang)年(nian)多(duo)媒碳(tan)销(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)产(chan)流(liu)量(liang)量(liang)存在提(ti)高(gao)，当中前(qian)三年(nian)度(du)(du)(du)(du)新疆煤炭产(chan)/流(liu)量(liang)为954/959万吨(dun)(dun)左右，月环(huan)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)速+15.7%/+17.7%，预计在第四点年(nian)度(du)(du)(du)(du)产(chan)流(liu)量(liang)量(liang)与三年(nian)度(du)(du)(du)(du)变(bian)不(bu)太大(da)(da)(da)(da)。202两(liang)年(nian)多(duo)秦港5500大(da)(da)(da)(da)卡冲力(li)煤成(cheng)交(jiao)价(jia)为965元/吨(dun)(dun)，月环(huan)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)速的(de)(de)大(da)(da)(da)(da)大(da)(da)(da)(da)减少(shao)24.0%；京唐港主焦煤（陕西产(chan)）库加价(jia)成(cheng)交(jiao)价(jia)为2283元/吨(dun)(dun)，月环(huan)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)速的(de)(de)大(da)(da)(da)(da)大(da)(da)(da)(da)减少(shao)19.6%。子(zi)(zi)(zi)工(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)媒碳(tan)销(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)产(chan)流(liu)量(liang)量(liang)变(bian)高(gao)很大(da)(da)(da)(da)层面上对冲套利了市场中煤价(jia)股票(piao)下跌导致(zhi)。魅(mei)(mei)力(li)销(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)：总(zong)(zong)直接费用这的(de)(de)层面，受(shou)惠于煤价(jia)选股较多(duo)，子(zi)(zi)(zi)工(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)并网发电总(zong)(zong)直接费用急剧大(da)(da)(da)(da)大(da)(da)(da)(da)减少(shao)；量(liang)这的(de)(de)层面，子(zi)(zi)(zi)工(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)首发充(chong)电电流(liu)有一定(ding)的(de)(de)缓(huan)和(he)，前(qian)三年(nian)度(du)(du)(du)(du)子(zi)(zi)(zi)工(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)共发/售(shou)电283/268亿(yi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)，月环(huan)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)速+0.6%/+0.4%，当中Q3发/售(shou)电112/105亿(yi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)，月环(huan)比(bi)(bi)+35.1%/+35.2%；定(ding)价(jia)这的(de)(de)层面，前(qian)三年(nian)度(du)(du)(du)(du)总(zong)(zong)值(zhi)电费476元/千伏(fu)安时，月环(huan)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)速+2.6%。202两(liang)年(nian)多(duo)子(zi)(zi)(zi)工(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)魅(mei)(mei)力(li)的(de)(de)的(de)(de)业务板块显著的(de)(de)缓(huan)和(he)，子(zi)(zi)(zi)工(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)数(shu)字(zi)代表的(de)(de)五月份起魅(mei)(mei)力(li)销(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)着手(shou)扭(niu)亏。

全钒液流电池项目加速落地，其他储能项目同步拓展

快速(su)合(he)理(li)布局全钒(fan)液(ye)流容积(ji)锂(li)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)板(ban)充电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)全房产(chan)链，子(zi)大平台(tai)储能技术(shu)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)技术(shu)转型期(qi)快速(su)下地。（1）全钒(fan)液(ye)流容积(ji)锂(li)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)板(ban)充电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)顶(ding)目(mu)投(tou)(tou)资(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)活(huo)(huo)(huo)动投(tou)(tou)资(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)：6月(yue)(yue)27日(ri)(ri)1期(qi)300MW大容积(ji)全钒(fan)液(ye)流容积(ji)锂(li)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)板(ban)充电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)生孩(hai)(hai)子(zi)线(xian)(xian)(xian)开(kai)(kai)建投(tou)(tou)资(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)活(huo)(huo)(huo)动投(tou)(tou)资(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)，九月(yue)(yue)完整桩基(ji)事业，开(kai)(kai)展202几(ji)年(nian)下一个(ge)月(yue)(yue)建成投(tou)(tou)建，中仅1MW测试生孩(hai)(hai)子(zi)线(xian)(xian)(xian)已(yi)安(an)装(zhuang)使用(yong)(yong)按装(zhuang)完整，开(kai)(kai)展1期(qi)顶(ding)目(mu)达(da)在(zai)在(zai)产(chan)后占(zhan)当(dang)(dang)今(jin)世界餐饮市(shi)场(chang)占(zhan)比(bi)(bi)10%。另外方案(an)沙洲供用(yong)(yong)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)四期(qi)30MW全钒(fan)液(ye)流容积(ji)锂(li)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)板(ban)充电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)储能技术(shu)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)技术(shu)铺助调频专业教师示(shi)范(fan)顶(ding)目(mu)，顶(ding)目(mu)装(zhuang)修设(she)计及储能技术(shu)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)技术(shu)程序主设(she)备中标(biao)事业已(yi)完整。（2）钒(fan)矿选冶(ye)生孩(hai)(hai)子(zi)线(xian)(xian)(xian)投(tou)(tou)资(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)活(huo)(huo)(huo)动投(tou)(tou)资(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)：6月(yue)(yue)29日(ri)(ri)汇宏矿业大平台(tai)1期(qi)3000吨/年(nian)高纯五防(fang)氧化二钒(fan)选冶(ye)生孩(hai)(hai)子(zi)线(xian)(xian)(xian)开(kai)(kai)建投(tou)(tou)资(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)活(huo)(huo)(huo)动投(tou)(tou)资(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)，开(kai)(kai)展202几(ji)年(nian)下一个(ge)月(yue)(yue)建成投(tou)(tou)建，达(da)在(zai)在(zai)产(chan)后占(zhan)当(dang)(dang)今(jin)世界占(zhan)比(bi)(bi)约20%。子(zi)大平台(tai)共方案(an)投(tou)(tou)资(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)活(huo)(huo)(huo)动投(tou)(tou)资(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)2×3000吨/年(nian)，根(gen)据钒(fan)被(bei)迅(xun)速(su)被(bei)联合(he)开(kai)(kai)发使用(yong)(yong)，子(zi)大平台(tai)钒(fan)矿资(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)源英文价值(zhi)量突显。

海则滩建设加快，第五次高管增持落地彰显信心

海则滩煤(mei)业(ye)(ye)(ye)楼盘(pan)估(gu)计(ji)(ji)2026年(nian)(nian)出煤(mei)。工(gong)(gong)(gong)厂(chang)(chang)隶(li)属(shu)安(an)徽省亿华(hua)海则滩煤(mei)业(ye)(ye)(ye)楼盘(pan)是(shi)在安(an)徽省省榆横工(gong)(gong)(gong)矿区，煤(mei)种最(zui)主(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)的为特色(se)(se)蓝(lan)翔塑(su)业(ye)(ye)(ye)有(you)限(xian)企(qi)业(ye)(ye)(ye)所(suo)工(gong)(gong)(gong)作的用煤(mei)及干(gan)劲煤(mei)，资源英(ying)文储量(liang)11.43亿吨，大概发高烧量(liang)6500大卡上。截止202两年(nian)(nian)多(duo)(duo)1二月31日整体性(xing)过程(cheng)进程(cheng)比准备(bei)延后一月，估(gu)计(ji)(ji)2026年(nian)(nian)遵循出煤(mei)要(yao)求。该楼盘(pan)可达到(dao)到(dao)1000十万吨/年(nian)(nian)特色(se)(se)蓝(lan)翔塑(su)业(ye)(ye)(ye)有(you)限(xian)企(qi)业(ye)(ye)(ye)所(suo)工(gong)(gong)(gong)作的用煤(mei)及干(gan)劲煤(mei)工(gong)(gong)(gong)作效率，按(an)近六年(nian)(nian)市(shi)场(chang)的中煤(mei)价(jia)计(ji)(ji)算(suan)方法(fa)净毛利率润约435亿，按(an)202两年(nian)(nian)多(duo)(duo)市(shi)场(chang)的中大概煤(mei)价(jia)计(ji)(ji)算(suan)方法(fa)净毛利率润约445亿。领(ling)导(dao)层数次(ci)加(jia)持引领(ling)主(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)。202两年(nian)(nian)多(duo)(duo)11月工(gong)(gong)(gong)厂(chang)(chang)通告主(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)经营(ying)(ying)方法(fa)技术人员(yuan)多(duo)(duo)次(ci)加(jia)持工(gong)(gong)(gong)厂(chang)(chang)个(ge)股准备(bei)施实完了，这次(ci)合计(ji)(ji)数加(jia)持0.09%，展示工(gong)(gong)(gong)厂(chang)(chang)经营(ying)(ying)方法(fa)层对工(gong)(gong)(gong)厂(chang)(chang)提升(sheng)的主(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)。

分险显示信息：煤价上涨超实际的收(shou)益(yi)；传统的煤炭年产(chan)量抵不(bu)过实际的收(shou)益(yi)；储(chu)能电池变革抵不(bu)过实际的收(shou)益(yi)。

   

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